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Primary Researcher: Ir. Heleen Groenenberg
Email address: H.Groenenberg@chem.uu.nl
Submitted on: July 9, 2002
Start date: 30 November 1999
End date: 30 November 1999
The Kyoto Protocol, agreed in 1997 by the Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, is a first step toward stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at safe levels. Further steps will need to be made, and a key issue in this respect will be a fair differentiation of future commitments.
The question what greenhouse gas emission reduction each country should achieve is troubled by a large number of differences between countries that make it difficult to determine national targets that are acceptable for all Parties. One approach that takes into account these national circumstances is the Triptych approach.
The project aims to further found and deepen the Triptych approach as a tool for differentiation of commitments.
The Triptych approach is a sector-based approach that uses need, capacity and guilt as leading notions of equity. The method takes into account national circumstances and emission reduction opportunities to establish reasonable quantitative emission reduction targets. A number of examples of such varying national circumstances are fuel mix in power generation, population size and growth, energy efficiency in heavy industry and climate. The shares of the various sectors in the economy, fuel mix in power generation and climate are other factors that determine to a large extent a country’s reduction possibilities.
Issues that are being addressed at the moment are the inclusion of non-CO2 greenhouse gases in a differentiation scheme and the determination of reasonable ''baselines for physical production'' in the energy-intensive industry in low, middle and high income countries. ''Monte Carlo analysis'' may be used to clarify the consequences of uncertainties in the input data and subjectivity in the criteria for the resulting targets. Future research may comprise the ''allocation of emission permits'' in a global cap-and-trade system. In addition, the determination of reasonable ''decarbonisation objectives'', in particular for non-Annex I countries, while taking into account national circumstances might be vital for reaching long-term stabilisation targets.
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