Uncertainties in environmental modelling and consequences for decision making

WHERE and WHEN: in Vrsar (Croatia) from September 30 to October 11.
Vrsar is accessible by bus from Zagreb, by boat from Venice (to Pula, and then by bus), by plane through Pula or Trieste (I will arrange for transportation from these two airports).

FINANCIAL SUPPORT AVAILABLE: We will cover lodging expenses for all participants. In a number of cases, part of the travel expenses of participants will also be covered, depending on the availability of funds.

HOW TO APPLY: the number of participants is limited to 55. These will be selected according to a number of criteria (match of research interest with topic of institute, and country of origin, to assure balance) . To apply, please send professor Baveye (at p.baveye@abertay.ac.uk) via e-mail (1) a short C.V., including a color picture (will eventually be used to create a list of contacts in conference program), (2) a short text describing the link between your current work/research and the topic of the institute, and (3) an estimate of how much it would cost you to go to Vrsar (you can get information on that on the web or through a travel agent). Please also ask a colleague to send professor Baveye an e-mail stating that your knowledge of English (the official language of the institute) is sufficient to participate in the institute.

PROGRAMME, TIMETABLE AND ORGANIZATION



September 30, arrival at the hotel.

1st day of institute, Monday October 1, 2007

morning

* Baveye, P, and K. Chikviladze. Conference Welcome

* Baveye, P, Orientation and general context of the ASI: What "uncertainties", and why should we care?

afternoon

Theme 1: Measurements: Spatial and Temporal Scales

* Blöschl, G, Scale issues in hydrology and global climate change modelling

* Baveye, P, Measuring instruments and sensor dependence of local measured data



2nd day, Tuesday October 2, 2007



morning

* Baveye, P, The Modifiable Areal Unit Problem: Scale dependence issues in human and biophysical geography



Theme 2: Model conceptualization

* Gómez-Hernández, J.J., Complexity or stochasticity? Proper labels and ways to handle uncertain inputs in environmental modeling



afternoon

* Spatially explicit versus lumped models in hydrology

* Hilfer, R. Shifting mathematics: The rise of fractional calculus in the modelling of diffusion processes



3rd day, Wednesday October 3, 2007

morning

* Straface, S., Cellular automata modelling of environmental systems

* Polhill, G., Agent-based modelling of socio-economic processes related to the environment: I. Example of land use change

afternoon

Theme 3: Benchmarking and verification of models

* Baveye, P. Computer arithmetic and round-off errors: A quick-and-dirty tutorial on fallibility

* Polhill, G., Agent-based modelling of socio-economic processes related to the environment: II. Effect of round-off errors

Case study I: Soil carbon dynamics

* Jones, C.D., Global climate change and soil carbon stocks; predictions from two contrasting models for the turnover of organic carbon in soil

* Briones, M.J.I. Uncertainties related to the temperature sensitivity of soil carbon decomposition



4th day, Thursday October 4, 2007

morning

* Gunduz, O. Stability analysis and benchmarking of numerical schemes in environmental modelling

* Csendes, T. Interval analysis and verification of mathematical models

afternoon

* and verification of mathematical models

* Introductory hands-on practical session with software for model verification



5th day, Friday October 5, 2007

morning

* Follow-up of hands-on practical session with software for model verification



Theme 4: Calibration and sensitivity analysis

* Gaganis, P. Comparison of techniques for model calibration/parameter estimation

afternoon

* Trevisan, M., User subjectivity in Monte Carlo modeling of pesticide exposure

* Saltelli, A. Sensitivity analysis as an ingredient of modeling



6th day, Saturday October 6, 2007

morning

Case study II: Global climate change

* Kattsov, V., Uncertainties associated with climate change predictions of atmosphere-ocean general circulation models

* Boykoff, M., Dangerous news?: Possible biases in media presentation of climate change risk



7th day, Monday October 8, 2007

morning

* Introductory hands-on practical session with software for model sensitivity analysis



Theme 5: Validation and confirmation of models

* Uncertainty resulting from the multiplicity of acceptable environmental models: The equifinality thesis, a blessing in disguise?



afternoon

* Todini, E.. Incoherence of the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estmation (GLUE) methodology and he equifinality thesis

* Environmental models cannot be validated, but can they be confirmed? A discussion on terminology and its implications in practice



8th day Tuesday October 9, 2007

morning

Theme 6: Communicating modeling results and uncertainties

* Reactions to discourse about model uncertainty and calls for paradigm change in the scientific community

* Patt, A., Communicating prediction uncertainties to the public: Model-based and conflict-based sources of uncertainty.

afternoon

* Local stakeholders' acceptance of model-generated data used as a communication tool



Case study III: Natural attenuation of contaminants and risk assessment

* Shilev, S. Summary of the debate on the natural attenuation of subsurface contaminants

* Grebenkov, A. Summary of the debate on the natural attenuation of subsurface contaminants



9th day, Wednesday October 10, 2007

morning

Theme 7: Decision making on the basis of model prediction

* van der Sluijs, J.P., Models of science and policy: From expert demonstration to post-normal science

* Budtz-Jorgensen, E., The precautionary principle and statistical approaches to uncertainty

afternoon

* Chikviladze, K., How does the IPCC deal with modeling uncertainty in its recommendations?

* Organizing committee: Analysis of specific cases of policy development in the U.S. and E.U., in which model predictions played a significant role.

10th day, Thursday October 11, 2007

morning

* Organizing committee: Round-table and general discussion about future research needs

* Baveye, P, and K. Chikviladze. Conference wrap-up and farewell

afternoon

Visit of the Physics of Weather and Climate section at The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, in Trieste, Italy.