SENSE Summer symposium 2005 (Abstracts)

Symposium Website

Climate & Decision Making

White Certificates as a market policy instrument aiming at energy efficiency improvement

Vlasis Oikonomou

EU SAVE "White and Green" project aims at identifying the best characteristics of a market-based mechanism to increase the efficiency of final energy utilisation and analysing the effect of the various choices, using the experience obtained with instruments that are already implemented and analysing innovative policies and measures (P&M) which have been proposed. In particular, the practicability of using White Certificates (Energy Efficiency) along the same lines as Green Certificates (Renewable Energy) is explored. Simulation models were used to study the impact of various solutions on the cost of saving energy (particularly electricity and gas), the role that different technologies could play, and their expected diffusion. The research provides indications on best practice in the legislation and how to set up a European-wide system of tradable energy efficiency certificates. Such results should be useful both for the governments of EU member states and for the European Commission.

Environmental governance and political consumerism: the case of fuel efficiency labeling in europe

Sander van der Burg

Theories of ecological and political modernization point to the emergence of modernized environmental governance arrangements based on, among others, voluntary agreements and the provision of environmental information. Notions of political consumerism suggest that the consumers will increasingly play an important role in bringing about environmental reforms, for example when it comes to coping with climate change. I argue that the EU regulation concerning fuel efficiency, including the labeling Directive (1999/94/EC) is illustrative of these developments. The choice for labeling can be actively pursued by governments, aimed at bringing the consumer into regulatory arrangements. At the same time, producers will anticipate and respond to the greater availability of environmental information. As such, labeling not only works through consumer-choice but also through the producers. Social science research on labeling and political consumerism should thus put less emphasis on consumers attitude and behavior and focus on the representation of the consumers in (the development of) new environmental governance arrangements.

Developing the Dialogue on Energy and Climate

Marleen van de Kerkhof

There is a growing attention for the involvement of actors from society in solving the complex issues of energy and climate change. Both in the policy domain (transition management) and in the knowledge domain (large research programs such as BSIK) the involvement of �stakeholders� forms a central element. But what do we exactly expect from these stakeholders? And how should the involvement of stakeholders be organized in order to actually contribute to complex problem solving? The main argument in this presentation is that, in order to have a participatory process that generates new insights for policy and for the participants, a systematic and methodological approach is needed. The research at IVM focuses on the development of an approach that encourages the participants in the process to explore different policy options and viewpoints, and to elicit the assumptions and arguments on which these (conflicting) viewpoints are based. In the presentation, this approach is illustrated with examples from the participatory project �H₂ Dialoog� that is currently carried out at IVM. In this project, groups of stakeholders explore governance strategies to induce the transition towards a hydrogen economy.

Luctor et Emergo. Experiences from Dutch case studies in water management about decision making for climate change adaptation.

Jeroen Neuvel

Measures for climate change adaptation demand space, or result in another use of space. Therefore, climate change adaptation offers great challenges for land use planning. I will mainly focus on the decision making process in land use planning. To get insight in what, concerning the substantive and procedural discussion, the main dilemma’s are in the decision making process, I ’ve examined perceptions of relevant stakeholders on risks and measures (governmental and non-governmental). From this perspective I ’ve done research on the way in which decisions come about and what governance is applied. The main questions of my research were:
1. How do decisions about climate change adaptation strategies come about?
2. What governance is applied?
3. What explains the public acceptance of measures?
4. What (according to governance) can be recommended for similar projects?
These research questions have been answered with experiences from case studies in the Netherlands. In these case studies, the regional implementation and elaboration of some climate change adaptation policies in water management has been taken under account. A striking finding in the case studies was the great contrast between the two cases. In one case, there was great resistance against the development of a large scaled water retention area. Beside differences in knowledge (e.g ideas about how does a water retention area function?) also differences in interest (loss of farmland, opportunities for nature development), convictions (a strong belief in the possibilities of pumping), values and norms (an equal distribution of burdens) played an important role in public acceptance. The respondents of our second case seemed less negative about the development of the water retention area. The measures seemed to fit in their interest, norms, values et. In spite of the great contrast in public acceptance between the two cases, there were hardly any differences in the governance that was applied by regional authorities. In the first case, the applied governance has lead to even more resistance and as a result, the development of the water retention area was cancelled. Therefore I recommend to carry out a decent actor analysis at an early stage of the decision making process. This actor analysis should give insight in the differences in risk perceptions and frames of reference of involved actors. Based on the dilemma’s that reveal from this analysis, principles for governance can be chosen.

Global Environmental Change & Ecosystems Dynamics

Simulation of future landscapes from present-day land use patterns in a peatland region

Jasper van Belle

We constructed a spatially explicit model of vegetation development on a regional scale. The model is driven by surface water quality-, management-, and spatial context parameters, all of which are influenced by land use (distribution). Starting from current vegetation distribution the model simulates landscapes for consecutive years. These landscapes show the distribution of ecotope-like landscape units, which can be translated to plant species.
In this talk we use the model to explore the fate of fen vegetation in two scenarios, one with good water quality, and one with poor water quality.

Differential effects of water level and temperature on production and evaporation in four Sphagnum species

Bjorn Robroek

Bryophytes from the genus Sphagnum play a crucial role in the ecology of raised bogs; they regulate the hydrological conditions to a high degree and are largely responsible for the primary production. The extent in which these bryophytes influence their environment, however, differs among species. By affecting the relative abundance of hummock and hollow species, climate change effects such as increasing temperatures and changing precipitation rates may ultimately influence the functioning of the whole ecosystem. We investigated the effects of two temperatures and two water levels on growth, water loss and capitulum water content in four Sphagnum species that differ in their distribution along the hydrological gradient. S. magellanicum occupies lawns, whereas S. rubellum, S. imbricatum and S. fuscum occupy habitats that range from low to high hummocks. Apart from these differences, the geographic distribution across Europe differs for the four species. S. mag!ellanicum and S. rubellum extend farther southward than S. fuscum and S. imbricatum. A decrease in water table resulted in decreased height increment and biomass production for the lawn species. Water table did not affect height increment and biomass production of the hummock species. The loose growth of S. magellanicum and S. rubellum resulted in a rugged decrease in volumetric water content. As a result of hampered water transport towards the capitula evaporation of these species decreased. Temperature enhanced dry weight production of the widely distributed species, S. magellanicum and S. rubellum. As a result of increased temperature, height increment was greater for all species, except S. fuscum. For S. imbricatum this effect of temperature, however did not find expression in increased biomass production because of bulk density decreased. Our results show that the effects of global change may differ between Sphagnum species. This may result in changes in important ecosystem processes such as water loss and biomass production (i.e. carbon sequestration). We conclude that species composition and changes therein should be taken into account when evaluating global change effects on raised bog ecosystems.

Transplantation of peatmosses over a north-south gradient in Europe

Angela Breeuwer

Peat bogs play a large role in the global sequestration of carbon. By forming peat, the bogs act as a significant long term sink for atmospheric carbon. It is therefore important to know how ombrotrophic bog ecosystems will respond to predicted climate change. Since these bogs mainly consist of several Sphagnum species, it is necessary to know how these different Sphagnum species will respond to global warming and higher nitrogen levels, to predict the role of bogs as carbon sinks in the future. To examine this we have set up an experiment in which large peat monoliths (d = 55cm) have been transplanted over a gradient from the Northeast of Sweden to Northeast Germany. The four sites represent a range of rising temperature and nitrogen deposition. In addition, a decomposition experiment has been set up in which material of different Sphagnum species from the most Northern site was buried in litterbags in the four transplantation sites. After one year clear differences in length growth between the sites could be observed. Transplantation from the most northern site to the Central-Sweden site increased Sphagnum height growth, but transplantation further South decreased growth. In all other southward transplantations a relative decrease in Sphagnum growth was observed. Looking at the competition between the different species different trends can be observed. In all the monoliths from the most northern site, S. balticum is expanding at the cost of S. fuscum. In contrast, in the monoliths from the central Sweden site S. fuscum is expanding. Decomposition rates after one year increased as litterbags were buried more to the south. The S.balticum material had a higher decomposition rate than S. fuscum. These first-year results suggest that a small increase in temperature can have a positive effect on the productivity of Sphagnum for the most northern bogs. However, this increase in possible rate of carbon sequestration can be diminished by the larger decomposition rate of the Sphagnum with higher temperatures. More long-term data from this experiment will be needed to predict the future response of ombrotrophic bogs to global change.

Climate induced shifts in lake ecosystems: South American Lake Gradient Analysis

Sarian Kosten

It seems likely that shallow lakes are sensitive to climatic change as various feedback mechanisms maintaining stable states may be influenced by meteorological factors. For example, an increase in temperature could cause an increase in growth of aquatic vegetation, which in turn affects the critical turbidity level and the nutrient concentrations at which the lake shifts from one stable state to another. However, higher temperatures might also stimulate algal blooms, driving the lake into an opposite direction. Studying lakes along a latitudinal gradient may help resolve part of the uncertainty and help to predict the effects of expected climate change. This is the idea behind our South American Lake Gradient Analysis (SALGA) in which we focus on the following hypothesis: 1) The critical nutrient level for maintaining a clear lake changes with average temperature, and 2) The phosphorus level at which submerged macrophytes disappear is highest at (sub) tropical region.

We sample 100 lakes during 2004-2006 along a latitudinal gradient from the north of Brazil to the south of Argentina and use satellite image analysis to gather additional data. At the conference we will present and discuss fresh preliminary data from 32 of the sampled lakes.

Taking mycocentrism seriously: mycorrhizal fungal and plant responses to elevated CO₂

Odair Alberton

The aim of this study was to separately assess mycorrhizal fungal and plant responses under elevated atmospheric CO₂, and to test a mycocentric model that assumes that increased carbon availability to the fungus will not automatically feed back to enhanced plant growth performance.Meta-analyses were applied across independent studies. Responses were compared in ectomycorrhizal (ECM) and arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi, and ECM and AM plants. Responses of both mycorrhizal fungi and mycorrhizal plants to elevated CO₂ were significantly positive. The response ratio for ECM fungi was 1.34 (an increase of 34%) and for AM fungi 1.21 (21%), indicating a significantly different response. The response ratio for ECM plants was 1.26, similar to that of AM plants (1.25). Fractional colonisation turned out an unsuitable fungal parameter. Evidence was found for the mycocentric view in ECM, but not in AM systems. Fungal identity and plant identity were important parameters that affected respons ratios. The need for better descriptors of fungal and plant responses is emphasised.

The impact of elevated atmospheric CO₂ on soil C and N dynamics: a meta-analysis

Kees Jan van Groenigen

Field experiments are a valuable tool for predicting the effect of future [CO₂] on soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics. Using meta-analytic techniques, we reviewed the effect of CO₂ enrichment on SOM dynamics under field conditions. Our analysis summarizes the effects of 59 studies, and covers results from both OTC and FACE experiments. The effect of CO₂ enrichment on soil C contents depended on N availability; soil C contents only increased under e[CO₂] in experiments that received more than 30 kg N hec^-1 yr^-1. Stimulation of gross N immobilization at e[CO₂] was significant, but gross N mineralization rates remained unaffected. These results, together with a significant increase in microbial N contents at e[CO₂] in long term studies, suggest that higher [CO₂] levels enhanced microbial N demand. We will discuss the results of the meta-analysis in the light of the progressive nitrogen limitation theory.

Ecogenomics

Genomics Perspectives on Stress Analysis in Polluted Ecosystems

Nico van Straalen

Environmental toxicology is expanding its scope to a wider field, stress ecology, in which toxicant exposures are analysed as part of the whole gamut of influences with potentially adverse effects on the fitness of an organism. This range extension poses new challenges and requires new methodologies. Ecological genomics and bioinformatics, with their scope for multidimensionality, seem to hold good promise for meeting the future needs of environmental toxicology and risk analysis. Stress may be defined as any internal state in an organism resulting from placing it outside its fundamental ecological niche. The niche may be defined in terms of gene expression profiles under normal operating conditions. Such profiles are now being generated for a large number of test species in a variety of environments using microarray-based transcription profiling. Stress can be viewed as any deviation from the normal range of gene expressions. Although stress can thus be measured in principle by as many variables as there are genes on a microarray, experiments have shown that the highly multidimensional structure of transcription profiles can be reduced to a limited number of underlying chords. A framework for stress analysis of transcription profiles can be obtained from the cell biological literature of stress responses. This literature demonstrates the involvement of five fundamental stress response systems: (i) signal transduction pathways, (ii) stress protein systems, (iii) antioxidant enzymes and radical scavengers, (iv) the metallothionein system and associated pathways, and (v) the mixed function oxygenase system. Transcription profiles can be analysed for their signatures along these greatly reduced dimensions. It is expected that such analysis will provide a new and highly sensitive set of tools for risk assessment. For soil evaluation attention is focused on the use of standard test species now being transformed into a genomic model, Folsomia candida.

Towards Ecogenome-informatics

Bart van Houte

The ecogenomics project focuses on the meta-genomics of eco systems. The prefix 'meta' means that the genomes of all organisms in a soil system is considered as one single genome. This implies for example that we (also) study the gene expression of soil systems, instead of single soil organisms (only). On the bioinformatics point of view, this shift to a higher level means that we will have to adapt the existing analysis tools, or even devise completely new tools if necessary. In my presentation, I will first talk about my new clustering algorithm, which can be used for clustering in general, but is especially well suited for clustering gene expression data. I will talk about the advantages of this algorithm in comparison with other ones. We expect this algorithm to become the motor of all future bioinformatics tools within the ecogenomics project. I will then discuss my future plans. At this moment, the experimentalists within the ecogenomics project are measuring gene expressions of soil organisms under different circumstances (healthy soil, copper polluted soil, PAC polluted soil, etc.) at different time points. The idea is that, based on their data, we analyse which minimum set of genes maximally indicate for the condition of the soil system. We will also build a database with these gene expression profiles, and develop a tool which predicts the condition of 'unknown' soil systems by intelligently comparing the gene expression data of the soil system in question with all the other gene expression profiles in the database. This tool will, if possible, primarily rely its predicion on the gene expression profiles of the set of indicator genes. It is clear that forward understanding of gene expression patterns following contaminant-driven disturbance of the soil system will also require detailed knowledge of signaling and regulation pathways inducing the expression patterns. This means that knowledge of upstream gene regions will be important for obtaining insight in for example transcription factor-binding sites. This will allow understanding of simultaneous versus time-delayed regulation patters and will optimize the recognition of differential gene expression patterns and subsequent mapping on contaminants.

Ecotoxicology meets genomics: profiling the effects of environmental contaminants on gene expression in the zebrafish

Juliette Legler

The zebrafish Danio rerio has been widely used for toxicological research for decades. This small cyprinid fish provides an excellent model for studying vertebrate development because of its external fertilization, transparent embyos, rapid embryonic developmental cycle and large clutch sizes. The availability of considerable genomic data on the zebrafish has triggered the construction of zebrafish microarrays and the analysis of global gene expression. In our laboratory, the effects of environmental contaminants are examined in various life stages of the zebrafish. In particular, the effects of endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) are studied, including effects on development, steroid hormone receptor activation and sexual differentiation. In this presentation, I will outline our current research efforts aimed at elucidating the mechanisms by which EDCs may alter gene and protein expression using modern toxicogenomics approaches.

Effects of increased atmospheric Carbon Dioxide on microbial community dynamics associate with rhizosphere carbon flow: ecogenomics approach

Barbara Drigo

Within the framework of a national programme on global change and biodiversity, we aim to investigate the impact of elevated atmospheric CO2 levels on the composition and functioning of microbial communities in soil. In particular, the effects on the natural control of below-ground plant pathogens of dune plants by microbial antagonists will be studied. In the first experiment, we grew Carex arenaria (sand sedge) plants in three dune soils under controlled soil temperature and moisture conditions, while subjecting the aboveground compartment to defined atmospheric conditions differing in CO₂ concentrations (350 and 700 ppm). Using PCR-DGGE and Q-PCR, we examined the abundance and diversity of both broad microbial groups, such as bacteria, actinomycetes and fungi, as well as the dynamics of specific groups, such as Pseudomonas, Burkholderia and Bacillus, in the Carex rhizosphere. Multi-variate analysis of the DGGE profiles showed a significant influence of the elevated CO₂ on the total, bacterial community and fungal community as well as on the specific groups of Burkholderia and Pseudomonas spp. However, no significant effects were found for actinomycetes and bacilli suggesting that the plant-driven impact of elevated CO2 on the short term is towards species, which are known to be successful colonizers of the rhizosphere and strong competitors for root exudates. In new experiments we will apply the Stable Isotope Probing (SIP) technique. SIP is a particularly sensitive method for identifying organisms that degrade specific compounds within a complex community. We will use RNA-SIP to confirm the activity/presence of microbial populations to changes in the release of plant derived organic matter. The results will reveal the identity of the truly active microbes in the Carex arenaria root zone under ambient and increased CO₂ levels.

Anaerobic degradation of benzene and toluene in enrichment cultures and pure culture

Sander Weelink

Bioremediation has the potential to clean up contaminated environments inexpensively and effectively. Lack of information about the factors controlling the growth and metabolism of microorganisms in polluted environments, however, often limits its implementation. Rapid advances in the understanding of bioremediation, however, seem attainable. Nowadays, researchers have the ability to use new techniques to culture microorganisms and to evaluate their characteristics using a combination of ‘old-fashioned’ physiology, genomic and modeling techniques. Moreover, these new genomic techniques offer the possibility for similar studies on uncultured microorganisms. Combining models that can predict the activity of microorganisms that are involved in bioremediation with existing geochemical and hydrological models should make bioremediation more knowledge-based.
At the Microbial Physiology group of the Laboratory of Microbiology isolation and characterization of organisms involved in bioremediation is an important part of the research carried out. The conversion of xenobiotic compounds, such as chlorinated and aromatic hydrocarbons, is one of the main subjects of interest. In this presentation I will focus on the anaerobic degradation of monoaromatic hydrocarbons, in particular benzene and toluene.
Mobile monoaromatic hydrocarbons, such as benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylene (BTEX) are often found in nature and cause pollution of soil and groundwater. The contamination of the environment with aromatic hydrocarbons is observed at many sites, especially those related with petrochemical activities such as refinery and gasoline stations. Due to the relative high solubility of these aromatic hydrocarbons environmental contamination occurs mainly in the anoxic zones of the environment. Therefore, anaerobic bioremediation is an attractive remediation technique for these polluted soil sites. The bottleneck in the application of anaerobic techniques is the supposed poor anaerobic biodegradability of benzene. However, evidence for anaerobic benzene degradation is growing. The aim of this research was to get insight in anaerobic degradation of benzene and toluene under different terminal electron accepting conditions. This approach resulted in two benzene-degrading enrichment cultures and a novel toluene-degrading bacterium.
Pure-culture microbiology fell slightly into disfavor among many microbiologists over the past two decades, because molecular analyses and new genomic techniques were rising. Therefore, in this presentation the need for pure-culture studies combined with molecular ecological tools in bioremediation strategies will be stressed.

Rock-Eating Mycorrhizae

Mark Smits

In 1997 tunnels were discovered in feldspar grains. These tunnels are thought to be a result of organic anion excretion by soil fungi, specifically ectomycorrhizal (EcM) fungi (‘rock-eating mycorrhizas’). In contrast with other biotic weathering phenomena, tunneling can be quantified by image analysis. The contribution of this fungal tunneling to weathering of the uppermost mineral soil across a North Michigan dune chronosequence was studied. Results show that the contribution of fungal tunneling to feldspar weathering is low. Fungal tunneling seems to play a minor role in both feldspar weathering and ecosystem influx of Ca and K. The total impact of fungal activity on feldspar weathering remains to be ascertained, because tunneling is only one aspect of fungal weathering. ‘Rock eating mycorrhizas’ probably also transport weathering products like aluminium to the plant root. Indeed budget studies suggest a biotic flux of aluminium from the mineral soil layer into the organic soil layer of podzols, wher most of the roots are. In vitro experiments show that Paxillus involutus and Rhizopogon roseolus, both EcM fungi, transport aluminium in a two-compartment agar system.

Modelling Climate Change

The exchange of carbon dioxide between the Atmospheric Boundary Layer and the Free Atmosphere

Monica Gorska

Boundary layer dynamics and surface processes control the daily evolution of carbon dioxide. An important processes in this CO₂ diurnal variability is the exchange of carbon dioxide between the atmospheric boundary layer and the free atmosphere. This process has received little attention and it can be important in regional and global studies. We will investigate this exchange of carbon dioxide during clear weather conditions. Observations taken under different surface and meteorological situations are compared with model results to explore the evolution of this exchange of carbon dioxide. This exchange is important in the morning hours in a case studied at Cabauw. Because this is just one case, additional cases are and will be analysed to study the evolution of this exchange.

Mixing of heat in the ocean: impacts on the circulation and sea level

Caroline Katsman

Projections for future sea level rise display a large model uncertainty, mainly associated with the thermal expansion of the ocean. Such projections depend critically on a correct representation of small-scale mixing processes. Theoretical considerations suggest that newly developed parameterizations may have large impacts on projections for future variations in global mean sea level and local sea level. These findings need to be verified in climate models, which currently parameterize mixing in a very simple way.

The CNRM-CM3 climate model and IPCC climate simulations of the 21st century

Aurore Voldoire

In participating to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), many climate modeling institutes have provided climate change simulations over the 21st century to the climate research community. These simulations are produced by climate models which are generally composed of an ocean model, an atmospheric model and a sea-ice model. The CNRM has contributed to the IPCC with the CNRM-CM3 coupled model. This model as well as results from the 21st century simulations will be presented. In IPCC simulations, models are forced by greenhouse concentration changes as well as aerosols emissions. In these simulations, there is generally no modification of the vegetation map. However, it has been shown that changes in the landscape (for instance, deforestation to increase the area of crops) could have an impact on atmospheric climate. To take this effect into account, we have included a new model, the IMAGE integrated impact model developped in RIVM, in our climate system. The IMAGE model is able to simulate land use changes according to demographic and economical projections for the future. This new system will also be presented.

Measuring the mass balance of glaciers by using satellite images

Guy Calluy

Glaciers are excellent indicators for climate change, but of the many glaciers available, only a few are measured regularly. By using satellite images, the number of observed glaciers can be increased dramatically, but first a method has to be devised and tested thoroughly. This research builds on earlier work to add to one of the possible methods and to try it on new glaciers. This talk will first, briefly, introduce the structure of a glacier and the concept of glacier mass balance. Then the method of measuring mass balance by using satellite data will be explained, including the main advantages and limitations. This will be illustrated by using the ice cap Vatnajökull (Iceland) with NOAA-AVHRR images as example.

Energy from Water

Salinity gradient energy

Jan W. Post

Reduction of greenhouse gases like CO2 i.e. by exploiting renewable energy sources is an important objective according to the Kyoto Protocol. Free energy of mixing electrolytes’ solutions represents a vast source of such CO2-neutral energy. This so-called salinity gradient energy is worldwide available at estuaries of rivers and streams flowing into the sea or ocean. Large quantities of this energy are also hidden in salt deposits. Although the potential of these sources has long been recognized, they still remain unexploited. In principle, reversal of any process currently used for desalination should lead to the generation of power from salinity gradients. However, the economic feasibility of such an operation will be determined by the efficiency, reliability, and simplicity of the reversed process. Schemes based on the application of pressure-retarded osmosis, reverse electrodialysis and the vapor-pressure differential have been considered in literature. In the presentation the membrane based techniques pressure-retarded osmosis (PRO) and reverse electrodialysis (RED) will be compared. A theoretical evaluation will be given based on simplified models for both techniques. Besides this theoretical evaluation, also a short review is given of the limited amount of experimental data from literature.

Climate Change & River Systems

Detection of Water Storage Change from Temporal Gravity Variation

Shakeel Hasan

Detecting change in water storage from related temporal variation in gravity has become an important issue for many studies and research related to the Earth and environmental science, oceanography and climatology, and in particular hydrology and geophysics. Finding the relation between water storage and gravity change is promising for hydrologists, in closing the water balance, as well as for geophysicists, in detecting the real long-term gravity change. The Global Geodynamics Project (GGP) began in 1997 with the purpose to record the Earth's gravity field with high accuracy at a number of worldwide stations using superconducting gravimeters (SG). The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), jointly implemented by NASA and DLR, is a dedicated twin satellite mission (launched in March 2002) whose objective is to map the Earth's gravity field to high accuracy at monthly intervals. Both GGP and GRACE recognise that tracking the movement of water on and beneath the earth surface is one of the main goals, and thus promise a significant development in hydrological studies. We examine the local hydrological effect on gravity at the Geodynamic Observatory Moxa, Germany, by means of time series analysis and distributed hydrological modeling. We start looking at possibilities to relate GRACE derived gravity field with continental scale water storage change.

Ecological risks of heavy metal pollution in river floodplains under current and future boundary conditions

Aafke Schipper

During the last century, large amounts of particulate-bound heavy metals have been deposited on the river floodplains in the lower Rhine delta. Although sediment quality has improved considerably since the 1970s, exposure to heavy metal pollution might currently still pose risks upon floodplain species, due to the persistence of the deposited metals.
In the future, the amounts and distribution of sediment deposition and hence the heavy metal concentrations in the floodplains can be expected to change as a consequence of altering river discharges resulting from climate change. Furthermore, floodplain rehabilitation measures are foreseen for large parts of the river Rhine floodplains in the Netherlands, leading to alterations in floodplain morphology and land use patterns. This will influence both sedimentation processes and the spatial distribution of river floodplain organisms. Both climate change and floodplain rehabilitation measures are thus expected to influence the exposure of floodplain organisms to heavy metal pollution.
Within the framework of the NWO-LOICZ project ‘ bio-geomorphological interactions in river floodplains’, a PhD-study is conducted to investigate spatially explicit ecological risks of heavy metal pollution for both the current situation and future boundary conditions. The research results will facilitate policy makers in the delineation of high- and low-risk areas, thus enabling them to optimise cost-effectiveness of soil and sediment sanitation for nature rehabilitation.

Impact of climate change and anticipating flood management strategy on floodplain ecosystems of the river Rhine, The Netherlands

Marjolijn Haasnoot

Due to climate change the discharge of the river Rhine will alter significantly in the near future. To ensure the existing safety levels against flooding, implementation of measures to create more room for the river are inevitable. Therefore, water management authorities in the Netherlands emphasise on the need for new flood risk management strategies based on providing more room for rivers. In addition, those strategies aim for providing oppurtunities for ecological rehabilitation of the river floodplains and riparian wetlands as well. There is a need for information about the possible impact of climate change on flood risk management strategies on the river flooplain ecosystems. WL | Delft Hydraulics has modelled the ecological impact of changes in river discharges including the impact of new flood risk management strategies in several research projects. Based on the modelling results, it can be concluded that the expected changes in the discharge of the river Rhine due to climate change have a relativel small but significant impact on the floodplain ecosystems. Floodplain measures, needed to ensure safety against floods, and land use changes will have a larger impact on the floodplain ecosystems. In addition, floodplain measures may compensate for the negative effects of a changed river discharge for the next 50 years. The modelling results will be presented and discussed in this presentation.

Energy & Climate

Energy transition in rapidly developing countries – fact or fiction?

Frauke Urban

This presentation aims at presenting the proposal of my Ph.D. research project and at discussing the first research results. The main research goal is to analyse the possibilities, consequences and constraints of the partial replacement of fossil fuels by renewable and cleaner energies in rapidly developing countries and to assess possible effects on environmental, political and socio-economic issues. The discussion of the first research results addresses a comparison of best-suitable energy models for analysing energy systems in rapidly developing countries and/or scenario assumptions of well-known energy models such as AIM or TIMER.

Techno-economic Assessment of the Biotechnological Production of Bulk Chemicals from Renewable Resources

Barbara Hermann

In public and scientific debates, most attention related to biotechnology has so far been paid to genetically modified (GM) food, human genomics and pharmaceuticals synthesized by genetic engineering. However, biotechnology is about to open new perspectives for the manufacture of chemical bulk materials and chemical intermediates from renewable raw materials such as glucose, molasses and lignocellulosics, for example by means of fermentation. In the context of the European project “BREW”, the developments in this field in the next 20-30 years are considered. In order to further the research efforts and public discussion, this study aims at evaluating the medium and long term potential of biotechnology to produce certain bulk chemicals and chemical intermediates from renewables as an alternative route of production to petrochemical processes, while accounting for an expected technological progress in industrial biotechnology. In this paper we present a prospective assessment for the period until 2030. The methods used to address this aim include the analysis of material flows, energy use and emissions as well as the estimation of production costs for complex bio-based production chains. These are compared to conventional products, which have a comparable functionality but have been produced via petrochemical production routes. For the biotechnological production processes a generic approach was developed to circumvent problems related to data confidentiality and to ensure a comparable level of ambition. Bulk materials and chemical intermediates analysed include carboxylic acids such as acetic acid, alcohols such as 1,3-propanediol and proteins such as lysine. This presentation will provide results on material flows, energy use and CO2 emissions for key biotechnological products, which are assessed for two system boundaries: ‘cradle to factory gate’ and ‘cradle to grave’. Together with the estimated future production costs these results provide new insight into the potential of the considered substances and processes to substitute in the medium and long-term functionally equivalent products based on petrochemical production processes.

A comparison of hydrogen and electricity production systems with CO₂ capture and storage

Kay Damen

Fossil fuels can be used with greatly reduced GHG emissions by capturing the carbon during conversion into electricity or hydrogen and subsequently storing the captured CO2 in geological formations. Improved and new technology should ensure that fossil fuel utilisation takes place efficiently, at competitive cost levels and meets strict ecological standards.
A major challenge is to identify systems and implementation schemes that are able to meet these criteria and allow for a shift from the current use of fossil fuels to a more sustainable utilisation of fossil fuels. The aim of this project is to provide an overview of promising technologies and systems, determine its performance and costs and compare them amongst each other. Both state-of-the-art and advanced technologies are considered. The most promising concepts are investigated in detail to obtain thorough insight in potential, performance, sensitivities and R&D needs essential for commercialisation.
Quantitative insight in the potential development of key technologies and total systems over time will allow for the identification of promising introduction trajectories. Such trajectories provide valuable strategic insight for a successful transition of the current fossil fuel use to a sustainable energy system in which fossil fuels play an important role in conjunction with renewable energy sources and an efficient use of energy.