Core 3: Global change ― climate, land use and biogeochemical cycles

Core Chair: Prof. P. Vellinga

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Mission and aims

The aim of Core programme 3 is to analyse the causes and effects of, and possible solutions to global change with emphasis on changes in climate, land use and biogeochemical cycles. The ultimate aim of the various foci of the programme is to analyse global change and its impacts, and to develop models for the simulation and prediction, and assess management and policy implications under different scenarios and at various scales.
The strategy of SENSE Core 3 is to perform top quality research and PhD training in the Core 3 domain on the basis of disciplinary strength and integration over disciplines from the social and natural sciences. This is done by means of individual and collaborating activities of the permanent staff and by means of launching joint externally funded research programmes for PhDs and Postdocs, aiming at integration of disciplines.

Participating research groups and group leaders

Wageningen University and Research Centre (WIMEK)

• Earth System Science Group Prof.dr. P. Kabat
• Environmental Systems Analysis Group Prof.dr. R. Leemans
• Environmental Economics and Natural Resources Group Prof.dr. E. van Ierland
• Meteorological and Air Quality Group Prof.dr. B. Holtslag
• Nature Conservation and Plant Ecology Group Prof.dr. F. Berendse
• Soil formation and Ecopedology Group Prof.dr. N. van Breemen
• Soil Physics, Agrohydrology and Ground Water Mgt. Group Prof.dr. R. Feddes

Vrije Universiteit

• Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) Prof.dr. H. Verbruggen/Dr. M. Hofkes
• Geo-Environmental Sciences group Prof.dr. A. Dolman/Prof.dr. I. Simmers
• Animal ecology group Prof.dr. H.A. Verhoef
• Systems Ecology Group Prof.dr. R. Aerts

University of Amsterdam UvA (IBED)

• Aquatic ecotoxicology group Prof.dr. W. Admiraal

Leiden University

• Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML) Prof.dr. H. Udo de Haes

Maastricht University

• International Center for Integrative Studies (ICIS) Prof.dr. J. Rotmans/Prof.dr. P. Martens

University of Nijmegen
Centre for Wetland Ecology/Centre for Water and Society

• Department of Environmental Studies Prof.dr. P. Nienhuis
• Department of Environmental Biology Prof.dr. J. Roelofs

Utrecht University

Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation

• Science, Technology and Society Group (STS) Prof.dr. W. Turkenburg

Description of the research programme

The research programme is following the planning as envisaged in the Report for renewal of accreditation, 2002-2006.

Focus 1: Role of land cover and land use in hydrological and biogeochemical cycles
(unchanged)
Focus 2: Effects of global change on ecosystems processes, structure and biodiversity. (See Core programme 2)
Focus 3: Consequences of global change for river basins and coastal management
Because of the naturally integrating function of river systems, large river basins and adjacent coastal zones are generally considered to provide a logical framework for evaluation of the environmental and socio-economic consequences of natural or man-induced changes in climate, land use and water management. The use of the catchment approach places strong emphasis on the role of horizontal transport processes in understanding the consequences of land cover change. A powerful conceptual tool for organising research on horizontal fluxes of water, carbon, sediment, nutrients and pollutants is the ‘catchment cascade’. This approach provides an excellent means to link the effects of changes in upland catchments through lower-lying plains and coastal zones and eventually to the continental shelf seas. It thus becomes possible to organise a variety of observations for analysis by relating estimates of fluxes and storage to explicitly defined subsystems in the catchment. Observations and models of both vertical and horizontal fluxes can then be related to driving forces (climatic or socio-economic) within an overall conceptual framework.

Specific research priorities include:
ecohydrological processes, scaling issues and remote sensing, effects of multiple stressors on riverine ecosystems, nutrient and sediment flows, sustainable water management ecological and socio-economic functions and valuation of wetlands, river basins, and coastal zones.

Focus 4: Integrated assessment of socio-economic and policy aspects
This focus deals with the integrated assessment of aspects of global change by means of
integrated assessment modelling and by means of stakeholder analysis on mitigation and adaptation options. In addition specific attention is paid to transition management and integrative studies.
Specific research topics include: Integrated analysis of climate change and interactions with other pollutants, e.g. climate change and acidification or tropospheric ozone; integrated assessment through stakeholder analysis and participatory integrated assessment methods; Scenario analysis and technological progress (e.g. learning curves; endogenous technological progress); Stability of international environmental agreements (e.g. Kyoto agreement, Joint Implementation; Clean Development Mechanism); Transition management for sustainable production and consumption systems; Risk and uncertainty in integrated assessment of, for example, climate change; impacts on ecosystems and irreversibilities.