PhD Graduation

The combined effects of climate change on river flow and growing water demand cause an increase of water scarcity in many river basins. In transboundary basins where water is scarce, this development is one of the drivers of both noncompliance with water allocation agreements and conflicts over the property rights to river water. An unresolved challenge is how cooperation in water allocation can be improved. Underlying this challenge are the issues of contested property rights to river water, and the design and stability of international water allocation agreements. The objective of this thesis is to analyse water allocation in transboundary river basins, focusing on the strategic interaction between riparian countries regarding their decisions on water use.

The main methodology applied is game theory. I construct game-theoretic models to analyse cooperative agreements on water allocation, to assess strategic interaction when water is contested, and to design sharing rules for river water with attractive properties.

The results show that increasing water scarcity may aggravate noncompliance with water allocation agreements, but that a careful agreement design suffices to provide stability. Existing claims and property rights to water are important determinants for both the probability of conflict over river water, and the outcome of negotiations on water allocation. In addition, it is impossible to single out a unique fair allocation of transboundary river water. Overall, this thesis provides insight into the strategic aspects that play an important role in the transboundary water allocation problem and its possible solutions.

Promotor: Prof.dr. E.C. van Ierland

Co-promotors: Dr. H.P. Weikard and Dr. A.J.W. Ruijs