Research School for Socio-Economic and
Natural Sciences of the Environment
Research School for Socio-Economic and
Natural Sciences of the Environment
Agenda

Dan Yan

Date: 21 December 2017
Time: 11:00 - 12:30
Location: Aula, building 362, Gen. Foulkesweg 1, Wageningen

Dissertation title: 

Water allocation under future climate change and socio-economic development. The case of Pearl River Basin

Group: Wageningen University, Earth System Science
Promotors: Prof.dr. P. Kabat
Co-promotors: Dr. S.E. Werners, prof.dr. F. Ludwig and dr. Qing Huang

Extra information:

Abstract:

This thesis aims to assess the combined effects of climate change and socio-economic development on water supply and demand in the Pearl River basin (PRB), and identify water allocation plans, which are robust to future climate change and socio-economic development. The impact of climate change on future water availability is first assessed. Next, different models are developed to identify robust water allocation plans under future uncertainties. Results show that the reduction of low flow is problematic as already now the basin experiences water shortages during the dry season. Robust decision making using carefully selected state-of-the-art optimization algorithms in the PRB can help limit water shortage and salt intrusion in the Delta region. However, the current water allocation system is insufficient in solve the water scarcity in the PRB. More reservoirs in the middle and lower reaches of the Pearl River, could potentially improve the future low flow into the delta.