Title: Climate Sensitivity Analysis

Primary Researcher: Hanneke Levine-Moolenaar
Email address: H.E.Moolenaar@alumnus.rug.nl
Submitted on: November 19, 2002

Start date: 15 October 2001
End date: 15 October 2005

Introduction:

Complex numerical models are used to make expectations for the earth's future climate. The reliability of these expectations is unknown. One contributing factor is the existence of uncertain model parameters which leads to uncertainties in the outcome of the simulations. Ideally one would like to quantify these uncertanties. A direct approach, perturbing parameters and making additional climate simulations, is infeasable due to computational constraints. It would therefore be of great practical use to be able to identify effective parameter perturbations a priori on the basis of short integrations.

Aim:

In the context of climate simulation and prediction, a relevant question is what range of climate outcomes is possible given the range of parameter uncertainties. Our aim is to develop a method that identifies effective parameter perturbations based on short integrations. Adjoint equations will be used to assess the sensitivity of a short integration to a parameter perturbation.

Research:

In the context of the Lorenz 63 model, a method is developed that identifies effective parameter perturbations based on short integrations.
Use is made of the adjoint equations to assess the sensitivity of a short integration to a parameter perturbation.

Future Research

The next step in my research is to evaluate the method to identify effective parameter perturbations in the context of a more realistic atmospheric model. The T21QG model will be used.

Funding via University

Yes